Dr. Hamed Sow is among the few leaders in Mali who’s unanimous on their competence. With a diploma from the Nationwide Institute of Nuclear Sciences and Strategies (INSTN) in Saclay (France) and a Doctorate in Manufacturing Economics from the well-known College of Paris IX – Dauphine, Dr. Hamed Sow skilled wealthy skilled profession. First internationally for having made its debut in massive consulting corporations in France. Then, he was seconded knowledgeable to the European Fee in Brussels and principal technical assistant of the “Vitality Undertaking II” of the World Financial institution in Niger. He’ll finish his worldwide profession as Director Basic of the CDE in Brussels, a joint establishment of the Group of 77 ACP nations and 25 members of the EU. Major writer of PDES, President ATT’s social mission within the 2007 presidential election, he later returned to Mali the place he was appointed Minister of Mines, Vitality and Water. Upon leaving the federal government, he instantly turned CEO of the ARAMA / AMIC-Make investments Group, a monetary intermediation firm primarily based in Dubai. In Could 2011, Dr. Hamed Sow was appointed Particular Advisor to the President of the Republic of Mali, answerable for infrastructure, tools and funding till Could 2013, when he launched his political motion , the Labor Gathering for Improvement (RTD). Right now, the Malian economist heads a FinTech, headquartered in Lomé, which distributes very progressive technique of cost tailored to the wants of African populations.
True to his doctrine "converse solely knowingly and when it’s helpful", the person had been locked in whole silence because the final presidential election. Till December 13, 2019, the place we revealed his Tribune entitled “Mali at a crossroads: Union or Chaos”. This provoked hundreds of reactions. Very not often, we’ve got not recorded any unfavorable feedback on this Tribune. However many questions on the feasibility of sure options advisable by the writer. At first of 2020, we’re supplying you with the insights of this sensible economist on the remainder of his podium and on the presence of France in Mali and the Sahel. In our subsequent deliveries we’ll return to Dr. Hamed Sow's evaluation of the longer term foreign money of the ECO and what he calls the required awakening of the African elite.
Right now-Mali: Minister, your Tribune in our final concern of 2019 was a buzz. We’ve got had hundreds of optimistic reactions. Subsequently, your evaluation is among the highlights of the tip of 2019. Did you count on such success?
Dr. Hamed Sow: No, I don’t assume that this Tribune was a significant reality of the tip of 2019. It’s fairly merely the expression of the considered a citizen who mentioned aloud what maybe many Malians want silently . A number of the latter took the chance to precise their emotions in regards to the essential Nationwide Union.
From my viewpoint, the highlights of the tip of 2019 are of two sorts: (i) the definitive return of President ATT to his nation, after 7 years of exile in Senegal; (ii) the outcomes of the Nationwide Inclusive Dialogue (DNI).
– Barely packed, President ATT set to work on the request of the authorities. Participation within the closing of the DNI, mission to Mopti as a prelude to an intensive involvement within the seek for peace between the communities of his area of origin. A spontaneous, pure and humble engagement, which is the dominant attribute of this nice statesman. Permit me just a little anecdote as an example my considering: one afternoon in his front room in Dakar, throughout considered one of our a number of conferences, I requested him what have been the primary qualities that a political chief ought to have. President ATT replied: "Hamed, I’m tempted to reply you that it is best to attempt to haven’t any flaws, which is humanly inconceivable. However, it’s completely essential to have two elementary attitudes: to like one's nation / its folks and to battle in opposition to one's ego ”. So is ATT: a soldier at all times able to serve Mali. Could the nice Lord give him a protracted life, in order that he can see the peace, a lot wanted, return to his nation and see us sowing the seeds within the furrows that he has traced earlier than.
– The outcomes of the DNI (December 14-22, 2019) are above our hopes. I’m a kind of who didn’t imagine an excessive amount of on this “Massala pricey to President IBK”. It’s good to be mistaken when it’s within the curiosity of the nation that wins. A number of nationwide media have usually highlighted what they contemplate to be the four sturdy resolutions of the DNI:
the group of legislative elections in order that the subsequent parliamentary time period of deputies begins no later than Could 2, 2020
the group of a referendum for the revision of the Structure of February 25, 1992
the instant redeployment all through the nationwide territory of the reconstituted Protection and Safety forces.
the rereading of sure provisions of the Settlement for Peace and Reconciliation in Mali, ensuing from the Algiers course of, in keeping with the mechanisms offered for in article 65 of the mentioned Settlement. In actuality, the outcomes of the DNI are far more fruitful. The precedence actions relate to six themes that are divided into three time horizons: instant, medium time period (three to five years) and the long run (5 to 10 years and extra). The 6 themes cowl all areas of nationwide life: (I) Peace, safety and social cohesion; (Ii) Political and institutional; (Iii) Governance; (Iv) Social; (V) Economic system and finance; (Vi) Tradition, youth and sport. The resolutions are related responses to the nation's main issues: each on the safety and socio-economic ranges. Nevertheless, it’s regrettable that when it comes to governance, the primary resolutions of measures to battle corruption are suppressed within the medium time period, that’s to say in a horizon of three to five years. Total, good resolutions have subsequently been taken, it stays to be hoped that our age-old social inheritance doesn’t line them within the depths of public buildings. Past that, it was the open-mindedness and willingness of the CMA (Coordination of Actions of Azawad) in favor of peace that have been spectacular. Respect for the territorial integrity of Mali, belonging to the identical Malian nation, instant and unconditional welcome to the nationwide administrative companies and to the protection and safety forces in Kidal, acceptance of the precept of reorganization of sure provisions of the Settlement for the Peace and Reconciliation in keeping with the mechanisms offered for in its article 65. And to affix the symbolic acts to the phrase: frequent prayers with the members of the Platform and of the Authorities, signature on the tent of peace and so forth…
Daybreak, with the lifting of the ATT rays within the Middle and the CMA within the North, maybe inaugurates in the future 2020 of peace discovered for Mali.
Minister, to return to your Tribune, many readers, whereas discovering your proposals related, assume that a few of them are unlikely to be utilized, such because the appointment of Soumaïla Cissé as Prime Minister of IBK ?
It's attainable. I proceed to assume, nevertheless, that with the 2 main occasions talked about above, a authorities, tightened, of nationwide unity, with IBK President of the Republic and Soumaïla Cissé Prime Minister, is the most effective factor that may occur for Mali , in these hellish occasions. This type of alliance doesn’t occur in a single day. Time have to be left to time, as François Mitterrand as soon as mentioned. Soumi instructed me throughout the aborted try in February / March 2019 that he was prepared to provide every thing to assist our nation recuperate. I don’t assume he modified his thoughts. So all of it will depend on IBK. If he does it now, it might be his benefit, with none constraints. If he doesn’t, on the liabilities aspect of his stability sheet will probably be written that he wished to keep up a lonely energy regardless of the misery of the Malians. Past the safety issues, the dominant attribute of our nation right this moment is the development of the border of poverty, which is starting to the touch even “The center lessons”. This example, because of poor governance, is accentuated by the departure of increasingly financial operators, notably to Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, and in addition by the disaffection of many international buyers. The collapse of public administration doesn’t assist, nor does the absence of the State over complete swathes of the nationwide territory. And there may be added to all this procession of issues, the event of decay within the cities and within the countryside, reflecting the despair of the lots of of hundreds of younger folks left behind… Confronted with all these difficulties, that are more likely to worsen , the President of the Republic, in my humble opinion, ought to seize the dynamic created by the DNI to type a Authorities of nationwide unity.
However what can a authorities of nationwide unity do higher than a authorities of presidential majority?
A couple of years in the past, I invited an incredible Israeli businessman to Mali, whose household is usually cited by Forbes journal as being among the many 100 largest fortunes within the World. Throughout considered one of our discussions, he instructed me that when he comes on an exploratory journey to a rustic, he pays consideration to 5 issues: (I) the variety of planes on the tarmac, – (Ii) the state tv newspaper. If the information solely pertains to the audiences of the President of the Republic, members of the Authorities and seminars, he concludes that both the nation shouldn’t be sufficiently democratic, or that there’s not a lot occurring. factor. – (iv) the scale of the Authorities. If it exceeds 30 in nations with very low GNP / GDP, it’s that the positions usually are not distributed to work, however to reward some. – (v) the flexibility to hear and the relevance of the ideas of No. 1. “And that I preserve for myself”mentioned Idan Ofer to me.
You’ll agree with me that a authorities of nationwide unity is healthier in a position to meet such standards. If solely the objectivity of ORTM info, to take an instance. As well as, in a authorities made up of members of the bulk, the opposition and civil society, every minister pays extra consideration. He is aware of he’s being watched by these within the reverse camp. From Madiba Mandela, we’ve got discovered that the political chief surrounds himself and works with males dedicated to his trigger. Worker loyalty is the primary criterion of his alternative. The statesman appears for the talents, wherever they’re, to place them within the affairs of the nation. What issues to him is effectivity and dedication. An important factor for Mali right this moment is to deliver collectively expertise from all sides and interact in titanic work to lift the nation collectively. Could the Good Lord encourage IBK effectively.
France in Mali and the Sahel
Minister, let’s flip to the second a part of this interview. What’s your studying of the French presence right this moment in our nation. Do you might have an thought of what France needs and does in our nation.
France didn’t come to Mali by itself. It’s the Transitional Authorities who have been requested to President Hollande to return and assist us, confronted with the jihadist hazard in 2013. In January of this 12 months, Iyad Ag Ghali, on the head of ANSAR DINE's troops, supported by these of MUJAO , of AQIM and different jihadist teams, after having jumped the lock of Kona, was getting ready to hurry on Bamako.
This offensive was stopped by the troopers of Operation SERVAL. In brief, this intervention by the French military mobilized 1,800 interveners of all ranks and our bodies, spectacular air and land property. It lasted 18 months and 21 days. It allowed, with the assistance of the FAMAs, the liberation of the localities held by the jihadists. The operation value 647 million euros (or 424.three billion CFA francs) in keeping with the Court docket of Auditors of France. It additionally brought about the demise of 9 French troopers and greater than 300 wounded. To not point out the numerous lifeless and wounded from our personal protection and safety forces.
We all know that in all these operations the FAMAs have been current and infrequently that the command of the French troopers left their Malian counterparts returned the first in sure liberated cities. So why not in Kidal? Kidal is right this moment crystallizing the resentments of many Malians in opposition to the French military.
I feel it was an absence of appreciation by the French leaders of the time. Certainly their resolution was primarily based on info from the command of the troops in operation and the intelligence companies. The French military, understanding that its intervention in Mali and in the remainder of the Sahel might final fairly a very long time, wanted guides on the very troublesome theaters of operations within the Sahel and data collectors on the previous buddies and enemies of the then MNLA. The circumstances laid down by the MNLA and its allies within the Revolt have been to maintain Kidal below their management. French leaders might have let the Malian military return to Kidal and make an alliance with the boys of Basic Ag Gamou, who additionally know the bottom very effectively. They most well-liked to cope with the Ifoghas dominant actions somewhat than the bulk tribes of the Imghads, who nonetheless had fought alongside them within the restoration of sure cities in northern Mali.
This drawback is behind us right this moment, with the advances in CMA mentioned above. Tomorrow, if the Malian military is prepared, it might return to Kidal. This undermines the conspiracy theses, with out basis. It must also be famous that the 2013 MNLA has nothing to do with right this moment's. The Motion has broadened its base to all ethnicities, strengthened its inside democracy – and as one of many dominant teams within the CMA, the MNLA is right this moment one of many sturdy supporters of peace and nationwide concord.
Minister, as Barkhane took over from the Epervier and Serval operations on August 1, 2014. It’s an operation made up of four,500 French troopers. Once we add the MINUSMA and G5 troops, the international forces on our soil exceed 20,000 males, outfitted with arsenals of heavy tools and superior know-how. And regardless of all that, insecurity is growing daily within the Sahel. Which leads some to marvel in regards to the curiosity and the that means of those monumental means deployed, with out convincing outcomes.
Certainly, if you happen to add the 12,647 troopers and the 1,753 policemen of MINUSMA, the four,500 troopers of Barkhane (extra 220 further in a while), and the 620 troopers / trainers of the EUTM (European Military Coaching Mission of the Mali), there usually are not removed from 20,000 international parts of the protection and safety forces on our nationwide territory, with out forgetting our personal troops.
And what do you need to conclude from it? The experiences in Afghanistan, Somalia, Iraq, Libya and Syria present that the battle in opposition to terrorism is at all times long-term.
– Afghanistan skilled its 1st conflict from 1979 to 1989 in opposition to Soviet troops. This nation will expertise one other conflict, which started on October 7, 2001, following the September 11 assaults in New York and Washington by Al-Qaeda. Regardless of the Taliban's lack of energy, the demise of Osama bin Laden, the exile and the demise of Mullah Omar, the “Official finish of the conflict” on December 31, 2014, the nation was by no means utterly pacified. Quite the opposite, it has grow to be the scene of frequent, usually very lethal, assaults – and furthermore the US is right this moment obliged to enter into negotiations, with an unsure final result, with the Taliban.
– The Somali civil conflict started on January 26, 1991, with the autumn of dictator Siad Barre. 29 years later, and following the departure of the American intervention forces, the nation was dislocated into 6 territories managed by the “central” authorities, by the federal government of the self-proclaimed state of Somaliland, by the horrible extremist militias Al -Shabaab and by different armed teams. Because of this continual instability, repetitive famines have killed between 500,000 and 600,000 Somalis. And people who converse simply of the somalisation of Mali nonetheless don’t measure the importance of their remarks.
– And 13 years after the demise of Saddam Hussein, Iraq nonetheless lives in terror and is at present dealing with a widespread insurgency. Take a look at all the present tensions in and round this nation. The place might a widespread explosion all through the Center East come from, with the blows "Trumpistes".
– The conflict in Syria started on March 15, 2011. The determine of 500,000 lifeless can also be superior right here by specialists and thousands and thousands of displaced folks. A 3rd of the nation is destroyed and it’s not over.
– Daesh additionally didn’t disappear with the demise of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi. The Islamic State, regardless of the autumn of its final bastions, nonetheless retains a capability for nuisance, as evidenced by the regularity of the assaults within the Levant. The jihadist group has changed its standard army operations with asymmetrical interventions: bombings, assassinations and different ambushes. In keeping with a report launched by the Pentagon on August 6, 2019, ISIS's technique is evident: adapt, survive and strengthen within the Levant to arrange for a attainable resurgence of the caliphate.
Two disturbing phenomena are more likely to additional complicate the issues: – on the one hand, the actions of defeated jihadists in Syria and Iraq and others from Sudan and Somalia who search to withdraw to Libya, subsequently on the gates from the Sahel. – alternatively, the introduced departure (or discount) of American troops which dangers additional isolating France within the Sahel. Hopefully it will solely be an announcement impact from the present White Home tenant or that President Macron might be able to dissuade him from it.
All this to say that the World is way from ending jihadism. Sadly, the Sahel too. The hazard is in entrance of us, not behind. Motive why, we should strengthen our alliances.
And all of the army arsenal then, particularly the drones …
The drones deployed as a part of Barkhane are of MALE kind (Medium Altitude, Lengthy Endurance – considered one of these machines has flown greater than 30,000 km, a file). These are American-made Reaper, which prices round $ 5 million / unit. Till just lately, these drones have been used for analysis and statement of enemy troops. However since December 2019, the French military has carried out check photographs with its drones. In keeping with the Minister of Protection, the checks have been conclusive.
France has now entered the period of armed drones. Nevertheless, will this new scenario change the face of the conflict within the Sahel? Definitely drones, gusts, mirages, tigers … will counter the assaults by (common) jihadist columns, outfitted with heavy weapons, in opposition to the G5 troopers. Nevertheless, uneven warfare will stay what it’s. It’s a faceless conflict.
The jihadists are effectively conscious of the existence of drones and the strike capabilities of French aviation. They tailored. They function on bikes, first transported as spare elements in automobiles "Commoditized". They themselves journey in small teams (2 or three) to achieve their assembly factors, usually sleeping cells. They reassemble the motorbikes, unearth the weapons hidden by their accomplices and assault the army camps usually probably the most remoted and badly off, or the localities through which reside the poor defenseless populations.
Drones, helicopters, fighter planes … to not point out the bottom troops of the French military, irrespective of how efficient they’re, they can’t circumscribe every thing within the 5,097,338 km2 of G5 Sahel house. It’s subsequently essential to adapt the methods to the practices of the enemy: to represent cellular (joint Franco-Sahelian) items, effectively educated and outfitted and to go on the offensive, that’s to say assault somewhat than endure. That is, furthermore, what our Heads of State determined in Pau. After which, however lastly! Nor ought to we put every thing on the again or watch for France. It’s not France’s conflict, however ours first. The French usually are not a part of the battle in central Mali, which is at present the deadliest space. Malians there usually kill different Malians. The primary mass graves have been acknowledged by which organized drive? Who armed the militias “self-defense "? Let's begin by sweeping in entrance of our personal door.
So that you clear France?
I reply you with an goal evaluation. Barkhane goals to battle, within the Sahelo-Saharan strip, the Salafist jihadist armed teams, specifically Ansa Dine (and its new dismemberments), Aqmi, Al-Mourabitoune, Assist Group for Islam and Muslims, Islamic State within the Grand Sahara and Ansarul Islam, to quote the primary ones. The operation is carried out in partnership with the G5 Sahel instructions, specifically "On info change, common consultations on safety points, coaching, recommendation, coaching and tools." The tools deployed, already at first of the operation, is spectacular. 200 logistics automobiles, 200 armored automobiles, 6 drones, 6 fight plane, a dozen transport planes and round 20 helicopters.
The price of the Barkhane operation is estimated between 600 and 700 million per 12 months. In different phrases, because the begin of the operation in August 2014, France has spent at the very least three.25 billion euros, or greater than 2.131 billion FCFA. In additional telling phrases, France spends 1.2 billion FCFA per day in Mali within the battle in opposition to terrorism. Since their intervention in Mali in January 2013, 41 French troopers have been killed, to not point out the lots of of wounded.
In the event you completely need to set up French duties, it’s a must to return to the Libyan disaster. Bear in mind, for the coalition, composed primarily of the air and naval forces of France, Nice Britain, with the assist of the US, and 17 different states – together with three arable nations (Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Jordan) and Turkey, this conflict "Surgical" was seen as a mannequin for the longer term: long-range engagement with fighter jets coupled with assist for native allies. After having hijacked the mandate of the United Nations, limiting itself to defending an space of aerial inclusion for Libyan planes, the allies reached their army goals in simply over eight months, the loyalist troops of the Jamahiriya have been decimated, the Information Gaddafi was assassinated and energy left within the palms of the insurgents (the CNP) and a few uncontrolled militias. Within the absence of organized floor troops to safe the Libyan military’s arsenals, these have been looted by Islamists and arms traffickers of all stripes.
For Mali and the Sahel the darkish hours of the terrorist assault have been opening. A part of the defeated troops from Libya, combined with Islamists from Iraq, Sudan … swept over our area. Will probably be the start of the insurrection of January 17, 2012, led by the separatist group MLNA (on the time), mixed with the jihadists ANSARDINE, AQIM and MUJAO. With the Coup of March 21, 2012, breaking the chain of command of the Malian military, separatist and jihadist teams handle to take the primary cities of northern Mali, together with the regional capitals Kidal, Timbuktu and Gao . These jihadists will then flip in opposition to the MNLA and drive its troops from the primary cities of northern Mali.
The present misfortunes of Mali have their major origin within the campaign of Nicolas Sarkozy (and a person of the media / thinker, able to do something to be within the highlight: Bernard Henry Levi) in opposition to Muammar Mohamed Abu Minyar Gaddafi, higher recognized below the title of Gaddafi.
The present authorities of France has no duty for blasting the Libyan safety cordon, the direct consequence of which would be the destabilization of the Sahel. He inherited this case and it appears to me that he’s somewhat attempting to treatment it.
What are your protection arguments?
I don’t assume we’re earlier than the ICC the place I would be the lawyer for France. I'm simply supplying you with my thought. Understanding worldwide relations requires analyzing the pursuits of nations or teams.
"There are not any friendships between states, there are video games of curiosity." So what might France's pursuits for northern Mali be?
Is it primarily for the sale of weapons? In 2018, with 7% of the world market, France was the third largest exporter of weapons on this planet, behind the US (36%) and Russia (21%) and simply forward of Germany (6% ). Opposite to well-liked perception, the first outlet for French arms shouldn’t be Africa, however Asia, Oceania and, more and more, the Center East. Though they’ve elevated by 43% on the world market over the previous 5 years, France has recorded a reasonably marked decline on the African continent. And not one of the G5 Sahel nations is among the many major importers of French weapons. France's main prospects in Africa are Nigeria, Angola, Sudan, Cameroon and Senegal. Mali doesn’t even characterize zero.01% of the 9.1 billion euros garnered by France in 2018, because of its arms gross sales.
Are these for our mines? What’s placing when it comes to goal evaluation of the potential of the Malian subsoil is the dearth of current and dependable knowledge. That is the mattress of all hypothesis, even fabrications. In this sort of scenario, it’s a must to make a distinction between the present (the actual), the possible and go away the imaginary in perspective.
– The truth is that the mining sources in exploitation in Mali are primarily situated within the areas of Sikasso and Kayes. Within the northern areas of the nation, solely a small a part of Tilemsi phosphate has been the topic of semi-industrial exploitation and the manganese from the Tassiga mine (Ansongo), exploited, it appears, with out permits required. I’ve personally labored with a Canadian firm (Nice Quest) which has recognized sources on the Tilemsi web site of 50 million tonnes of 24% P205 phosphate. Plans to construct a Medium and Hight Grade phosphate manufacturing unit in Bourem and a plant for the manufacturing of fertilizer formulations in Dogofry (Ségou Area) have been pretty superior. The promoters have eased their footing with the issues brought on by the insurrection in 2012. The investor hates insecurity, until he invests in safety.
– The opposite recognized mining potentials in northern Mali concern uranium at Kidal (crystalline geological zone) and Gao, pegmatite and minerals in metamorphosis within the Adrar des Ifoghas, deposits of limestone rocks north of Goundam, copper in Ouatagouna, gypsum in Taoudéni, kaolin in Gao, lead and zinc in Tessalit, oil shales in Agamor and Almoustrat, lignite in Bourem, rock salt in Taoudéni, diatomite in Douna Behri. And there are rumors of gold. Nothing to do in actuality with the nice Eldorado described by some sensationalists.
As well as, it is best to know that France has no mining trade. Have you ever heard of a French firm, mining gold in Mali? Canadian, Australian, South African corporations … certainly, however no French.
– Is it for oil and gasoline? There are promising indications within the Taoudéni basin, particularly within the merged blocks 2 and four. However so far as I do know, there has by no means been any drilling in Mali. And with out drilling, it’s inconceivable to precisely decide the economically worthwhile amount and high quality of an oil area. If there are hydrocarbons within the North of Mali, they need to be evacuated by the port of Algiers, or that of Nouadhibou (if its new deep water port is obtainable), respectively 1704 km and 1360 km. Constructing pipelines over such distances requires superb qualities of oil and / or gasoline which might justify large investments. As well as, the development of hydrocarbon exploitation websites doesn’t occur in a single day. That of the Taoudéni basin might take 10 years. Si on y ajoute à tous ces obstacles, les problèmes d’insécurité dans la région, il est aisé de comprendre que ce n’est pas demain la veille que nous verrons le boum pétrolier dans le Nord du Mali. La plus grande richesse du Nord du Mali est le barrage de Taoussa, dont les travaux doivent reprendre très rapidement.
Il convient aussi de noter qu’au cours de ces 20 dernières années, aucune compagnie française n’a entrepris de recherche pétrolière au Mali. Ce n’est pas Complete qui a réalisé les sondages sismiques en 2008 dans le versant malien du bassin de Taoudéni, mais ENI (la grande compagnie italienne), en partenariat avec SIPEX, une filiale du géant algérien, la SONATRACH.
Enfin, une easy query de bon sens : la France a-t-elle besoin d’aller faire une guerre pour mettre la major sur les ressources minières ou pétrolières/gazières d’un pays comme le Mali ? Regardez ce qui s’est passé chez un de nos voisins. En définitive, il me parait clair que ce ne sont pas pour les ressources du sous-sol qui expliquent non plus la présence de l’armée française au Mali.
Pas de vente d’armes ou très peu, pas à trigger des ressources minières. Alors pour quelles raisons?
Pour des raisons sécuritaires et géostratégiques.
Imaginez les Etats sahéliens défaits et/ou déstabilisés par les groupes djihadistes, que le Bon Dieu nous en préserve. L’immense bande sahélo-saharienne deviendrait alors le sanctuaire (voire un califat) de toutes les menaces. Il constituerait une menace directe pour certains pays tels que la Côte d’Ivoire et le Sénégal où les intérêts français sont très importants. En effet, la France fight au Sahel pour défendre implicitement les intérêts de ses grandes entreprises en Côte d’Ivoire et au Sénégal. Le “djihad”, à partir du Sahel, pourrait se porter également contre le Maroc, la Tunisie (deux autres pays proches de la France) et l’Algérie. Cette menace serait alors aux portes de l’Europe.
L’instabilité du Sahel est aussi synonyme d’immigration de masse (alors, on ne parlerait plus de milliers, mais de vagues de dizaines de milliers) qui irait alors à l’assaut de l’Europe. L’Histoire nous montre qu’aucun mur ne peut résister aux grands mouvements de populations. L’explosion démographique de l’Afrique, avec ses 2,four milliards d’habitants en 2050 (dont la moitié aura moins de 25 ans), est un risque majeur pour la stabilité mondiale. Non seulement beaucoup de ces jeunes désœuvrés pourraient aller grossir les rangs djihadistes, mais d’autres plus nombreux prendraient les routes de l’immigration. Sans compter les dégâts autodestructifs dans leurs propres pays : alcool, drogues, prostitution, petites délinquances et grand banditisme.
En outre, la zone de non-droit concern de la déstabilisation des Etats du Sahel constituerait un boulevard pour les narco-trafiquants pour inonder les marchés européens de drogues de toutes sortes.
Je pense que c’est au vu de toutes ces menaces que la France s’est engagée au Sahel. C’est une politique visionnaire et courageuse.
Enfin, il y a le poids de l’Histoire. La France tire une partie de son affect dans le live performance de grandes nations à travers ses relations avec certains pays africains. Quels intérêts aurait alors la France de voir les pays qui font sa drive devenir des sanctuaires terroristes?
Que pensez-vous de la “convocation” des cooks d’Etat du G5 par le président Emmanuel Macron à Pau?
Je parlerai plutôt d’invitation, mal inspirée, médiatisée, destinée en grande partie à l’opinion publique française. Le Président Macron scrute l’horizon 2022 de la présidentielle en France. Il reste aujourd’hui le seul véritable rempart contre la candidate du Rassemblement Nationwide (RN) : Marine Le Pen. En brûlant le drapeau français, nous donnons des factors au chief du RN à la prochaine élection française. Arrêtons de mettre la faute toujours sur les autres. Nous avons entendu dans notre pays des énormités accusant ATT en “Chef des rebelles”. Heureusement que l’histoire a rapidement réhabilité ce dernier. Les jeunes qui crient contre la France, devraient d’abord hurler contre leurs propres dirigeants. Il y a quand même quelque selected de surréaliste dans ce débat. Il y a 7 ans, nous avons failli nous retrouver avec la charia comme Structure, des femmes voilées, plus de musique, à fortiori d’alcool, plutôt des coups de fouets, des mains coupées… Nous avons demandé et obtenu l’aide des Français. Alors que nous avons encore une armée loin d’être reconstituée (même si quelques efforts notables ont été récemment enregistrés), sachant que les Nations-Unies (MONUSCO par ci, MINUSMA par là…) n’ont jamais réglé un conflit, voilà que certains intellectuels se mettent à demander le départ de l’armée française. Je peux comprendre que des jeunes désœuvrés, manquant de toutes les données “crient au complot français”, mais pas certaines élites.
Est-ce que celles-ci ont entendu les interventions du Général Ibrahima Dahirou Dembélé, Ministre de la Défense et des Anciens Combattants devant les députés de l’Assemblée nationale, le 21 novembre 2019 ? Et d’aucuns de demander l’aide des Russes, qui dans leur volonté de reconquête de leur affect mondiale d’antan, aiment bien déstabiliser les positions occidentales. Pour autant, je ne suis pas sûr que Vladimir Poutine ait de raisons suffisantes pour envoyer ses soldats mourir au Mali. La Russie est un Etat-continent, qui a presque tout dans son sous-sol (à la différence de la Chine), mais qui subit de plein fouet les conséquences économiques des sanctions européennes. La Russie est intervenue en Syrie pour une easy raison : la ville portuaire de Tartous est le seul level de ravitaillement et de réparation de la Marine russe en mer Méditerranée. Ce qui permet aux navires de guerre russes d’éviter de passer par les Détroits turcs pour regagner leurs bases de la mer Noire. Poutine l’a fait clairement savoir aux Occidentaux : la Crimée et Tartous sont intouchables. Ces centres d’intérêts de la Russie sont au diapason de ceux concernant le Mali.
En définitive, je pense comme le Président Issoufou Mahamadou du Niger, qu’il faut plutôt un renforcement de la présence française au Sahel, avec le soutien d’autres pays, pour nous aider à nous débarrasser de la gangrène terroriste. Et à cet effet, il faut se féliciter des avancées du Sommet de Pau de ce 13 janvier 2020. En effet, le nouveau cadre opérationnel, baptisé “Coalition pour le Sahel”, composé par les pays du G5 Sahel, la France, les pays et organisations déjà engagés et ouvert à tous ceux qui voudront y contribuer, portera sur four piliers majeurs. Qui peuvent être résumés comme go well with : (i) renforcement de la lutte contre le terrorisme, meilleure coordination des actions sur le terrain, notamment à travers un commandement conjoint G5 Sahel/France, (ii) lancement par la France et l’Allemagne du P3S (Partenariat pour la Stabilité et la Sécurité au Sahel) en vue du renforcement des capacités militaires des pays de la Région grâce à une accélération et une amplification des efforts de formation, d’aguerrissement et d’équipements des armées du G5 Sahel, (iii) accélération du retour de l’administration et des companies publics sur l’ensembles des territoires nationaux – et cela prioritairement à Kidal, (iv) renforcement de l’aide au développement, notamment la mobilisation des financements pour la mise en œuvre du Programme d’Investissement Prioritaire (PIP) du G5 Sahel.
Le jour où nos armées seront prêtes, croyez-moi, la France ne se fera pas prier pour plier bagage, tant le fardeau de Barkhane est lourd pour ses seules épaules.
Et le reste du Monde ?
Nous vivons et risquons de vivre de plus en plus dans un monde incertain. Dans ses guerres commerciales contre la Chine, la Russie, l’Europe, dans sa haine de l’Iran… le Président américain a brisé la cohésion de la communauté internationale dont le poids se limite dorénavant à de molles protestations du Secrétaire Général des Nations-Unies et du Président de la Fee européenne face aux faits de non-droit. Une des conséquences majeures de l’affaiblissement de la communauté internationale sera le recul de plus en plus marqué de la démocratie. ;Les tentatives des 3èmes mandats et les radicalisations des pouvoirs en place en Afrique tiennent justement en cette absence de pression concertée de la communauté internationale.
La poussée des dictatures sera plus forte, si d’aventure le camp des populistes, des extrémistes de droite, des ultra-conservateurs, des climato-sceptiques devait gagner la présidentielle de novembre prochain aux Etats-Unis. Ce scénario apocalyptique pourrait faire des émules en Europe, avec l’arrivée des Marine Le Pen en France, Matteo Salvini en Italie, sans compter les tenants des droites dures déjà aux commandes en Grande-Bretagne avec Boris Johnson, Sebastien Kurz en Autriche, Ludovic Orban en Roumanie…
Le monde des “fils de Devil” est celui qui est également spolié par les puissances de l’argent, c’est-à-dire les grandes banques confortées dans leurs avidités spéculatives dans l’impunité assurée, des grands fonds d’investissement tels que BlackRock (avec ses 6 000 milliards d’euros d’actifs) qui manipulent même les comportements des consommateurs, tout en se passant une couche de vert (“verdir son portefeuille de projets”), des agences de notation pour les classements desquels les Etats définissent leur politique économique. Un monde de protectionnisme pour les marchés internes des dominants, de libéralisme pour les marchés des faibles, de manipulation des peuples par la peur de l’autre, de publicités (y compris subliminales) et de conditionnements des citoyens pour le “consommer plus”, de manufacturing à tout va (y compris de l’inutile : 80% des médicaments produits par l’industrie pharmaceutique est consommé inutilement), de surexploitation des ressources naturelles, de surchauffe du climat… Un monde de l’argent roi, où le capital asservi l’homme, où 80 % de la richesse mondiale va au 1 % les plus riches.
Et dans un tel monde, imaginez les pays du G5 Sahel, avec leurs 140 thousands and thousands d’habitants (dont les populations pourraient atteindre les 330 thousands and thousands en 2050), confrontés aux conséquences du dérèglement climatique (cycle lengthy de sécheresses, ponctué de pluies diluviennes dévastatrices) à la raréfaction des ressources naturelles, à l’exposition des villes, au chômage des dizaines de thousands and thousands jeunes… et en plus faire seul face à la déferlante djihadiste à partir du bourbier libyen. Moins d’émotion, plus de réflexion s’impose à nous tous !
Mais, malgré tout, je reste optimiste. Je sens un frémissement d’une partie des élites (des cooks d’entreprises, des acteurs de professions libérales, des responsables associatifs…),de la région, qui commencent à venir peu à peu sur les terrains de la politique. Après avoir laissé le champ aux professionnels de la politique, ils n’entendent pas voir leurs pays basculés entre les mains des religieux.
Il nous importe de nous organiser pour mettre aux commandes des leaders qui pourraient transformer notre potentiel démographique, géoenvironnemental (solaire, éolien, biomasse…) et géologique en atouts économiques pour l’avenir de notre région. Si nous avons perdu la bataille du capitalisme industriel, surplanté aujourd’hui par la finance internationale, nous pouvons être les précurseurs et les développeurs de l’économie different, au centre de laquelle se trouve le bien-être humain. We will change.
Interview réalisée par El Hadj Alou Badara HAIDARA