On this month of August and for the reason that deconfinement, how is the residential actual property market doing?
Maître Jean-François Humbert, President of the Superior Council of Notaries: “The market has not but recovered, past the “technical” rebound noticed for the reason that launch of the confinement. The well being disaster and the implications of the confinement have amplified the decline in exercise, with the abandonment or postponement of a big a part of the tasks envisaged. With the deconfinement, a catch-up impact was noticed in June and this restoration continued in July however didn’t return to the extent of exercise earlier than the disaster or that of June 2019.
For volumes, after the paralysis attributable to confinement, a resumption impact was evident in the course of the spring. The summer season months stay very risky. A lower in volumes most likely lower than 10 % ought to have the ability to be noticed in 2020 in comparison with 2019, which represents slightly greater than 100,000 fewer mutations. To foretell a fair larger decline is actually unreasonable and unsupported. “
Why are actual property costs holding up? Can costs nonetheless go up or down?
“Over one yr, the value improve stands at +5 %. Though extra marked for residences (+6.three % over one yr), the rise in home costs (+four %) tends to meet up with the latter. The orientation is rebalanced between homes and residences.
In Île-de-France, regardless of volumes on a downward development, the costs of second-hand housing are rising extra quickly than in earlier quarters (+2.2 %). They proceed to speed up over one yr, significantly for Parisian residences: +eight % over one yr within the 1st quarter of 2020.
Within the provinces, the rise can be accentuated: +1.7 % within the 1st quarter, after +1.2 % and + 1 %. This upward development appears to be generalizing over numerous areas which might be bigger than earlier than in each homes and residences. The vast majority of the big provincial cities additionally report constructive and extra intensive developments in comparison with the earlier quarter.
The problem lies within the confusion that may be attributable to evaluating worth earlier than confinement to fast volumes publish containment. Nonetheless, these figures should due to this fact be thought of with the best warning. We’re in a wait-and-see state of affairs and we should observe the transactions for the beginning of the September 2020 faculty yr.. The evolution of costs will largely rely upon financing capacities, particularly from recourse to credits : ease of acquiring, level of interest rates. “
A slowdown in worth will increase
“The evaluation of final pre-contracts nevertheless appears to level in direction of a lull of this normal uptrend : the projection of the change in costs noticed in mainland France within the 1st quarter of 2020 appears to proceed to extend in august 2020, however at a barely slower tempo, each for the residences (+1.1 % towards +2.three % in Q1 2020) than for homes (+zero.three % towards +1.5 % in Q1 2020), even when these indicators should be thought of with warning, particularly given the decrease variety of pre-contracts recorded in the course of the confinement interval. ”
What impacts will the disaster have on the true property market? And what, in your opinion, are the keys to the restoration?
“The true property sector is just not impartial from different branches of the financial system, fairly the opposite. All are linked in order that the state of affairs of the financial system as an entire will have an effect on actual property, specifically on excessive worth items. The true property restoration clearly will depend on the extent of family confidence sooner or later. If the well being disaster turns into a extreme financial disaster, city metropolises, that are now fairly steady when it comes to worth, can know a downward adjustment. The announcement of great job cuts in some areas might have an effect on the native actual property market.
The rise in DMTO ( ((transfer fees for payment), keep in mind that they cowl all actual property transactions : new or outdated actual property, constructing land, usufruct of a product, bare ownership of a constructing ”, which some say might“ seize ”the true property market as an entire. This has already been the case up to now. That is concern for the long run.
Actual property however stays a safe investment in France, which for twenty years has benefited from the robust lower rates but additionally carried by household recompositions. The refocusing of the orientations of the French in direction of basic needs, additionally appears to cause them to think about the energy quality of housing as an more and more necessary argument. Measures like My Prime Renov exist already. Authorities bulletins on the finish of September are expected, particularly for the new housing. “
In these unsure occasions, what recommendation do you’ve for many who wish to purchase or spend money on actual property?
Shopping for actual property is commonly the challenge of a lifetime that requires cautious consideration. You shouldn’t rush and take your time: examine nicely the market, the surroundings, the great. And above all to hunt recommendation from professionals, specifically his lawyer. “
Olivier Marin
