Unemployment figures: the realities behind fiction

False. In France as elsewhere, the unemployment price is a really imperfect indicator. Let's cease utilizing it!

Sometimes, we congratulate ourselves or really feel sorry for just a few tenths of a p.c of unemployment price misplaced or earned. However this price is just not a great indicator, primarily as a result of, whether or not it’s the price measured by INSEE or that of class A of Pôle emploi, it excludes unemployed individuals who, quickly or extra will not be actively searching for. They’re nevertheless very disadvantaged of employment and, for numerous them, desperate to work (false impression 7). The unemployment price can thus be lowered with out, nevertheless, the employment state of affairs considerably enhancing (see additionally false impression 84).

In reality, Pôle emploi doesn’t depend people who find themselves unsubscribed or by no means registered and who however want to work. They’re between 2 and three million, or a great half (roughly¹) of the 1.eight million RSA beneficiaries (solely 630,000 job seekers registered in classes A, B and C are certainly beneficiaries of the fundamental RSA in February 2019², about 1.83 million beneficiaries of the RSA base on the identical date), extra between 500,000 and a million of the 1.9 million younger folks aged 15 to 29 who’re neither in employment nor in coaching, extra nonetheless others who’ve misplaced hope and / or are in non-recourse RSA and different social advantages, however could also be keen to work once more if provided first rate work³.

It also needs to be famous that class A of Pôle emploi doesn’t embody precarious employees, the variety of which is continually growing⁴. Between 1996 and 2018, Pôle emploi's classes B and C rose from 19% of whole job seekers to virtually 40%, i.e. from zero.6 to 2.2 million folks.

Then again, given the time it takes to register recordsdata, not all job seekers in class A seem within the Pôle emploi figures: “On common, explains a supervisor, I’ve 300 folks ready of project in my company⁵. “

The unemployment price says nothing, furthermore, of the territorial or age inequalities linked to employment (specifically the rising exclusion of these over 40 who’ve a low degree of schooling).

Lastly, the declared job returns solely symbolize round 20% of exits from Pôle emploi classes A, B and C⁶. Half of the overall outings are non-renewals of registration for which the explanations could be very various, for instance the truth that when one doesn’t obtain or extra unemployment profit, there are much less causes to register for Pôle emploi (or the situations for receiving the allowance develop into extra restrictive in 2020…). We due to this fact disappear from Pôle emploi statistics though we’re nonetheless unemployed …

As for the INSEE determine, it corresponds to individuals who didn’t work – even an hour – within the reference week, who can be found inside 15 days and who actively seemed for work within the earlier month . INSEE provides to this determine (round 2.eight million folks) two others, much less identified. First, that of the “halo of unemployment”, that’s to say individuals who wouldn’t be accessible shortly and those that wouldn’t exhibit an energetic job search method, both as a result of they’re searching for their aspect, both as a result of they not search, out of discouragement. Second, the “underemployment” determine, which considerations part-time employees wishing to extend their working hours. INSEE estimates the halo and underemployment at round 1.6 million folks every⁷.

As quickly because the unemployment figures are skewed (and conceal more and more essential territorial inequalities), they permit many discourses and insurance policies which don’t assault its actual causes, however nonetheless enable these non permanent reductions figures by means of the event of precarious employment, the position of the unemployed in coaching, the encouragement of self-entrepreneurship, and so forth. These insurance policies take away folks from class A from Pôle emploi or INSEE calculations, however their effectiveness is simply a facade.

There’s a higher indicator than the unemployment figures given by Pôle Emploi or INSEE. It was launched in late 2017 by the journal Financial Options and measure⁸, primarily based on INSEE figures, the speed of non-employment, that’s to say the speed of energetic folks not in employment. To do that, it incorporates the halo of unemployment calculated by INSEE and, contemplating that part-time is extra typically suffered than chosen, reduces part-time to full-time equal, thus producing a “non-employment price in equal full time ”which in 2018 amounted to 27.2% in France, 28% in the UK and 28.four% in Germany. This indicator could be very fascinating. However, by calculating the halo of unemployment like INSEE, it overlooks a sure variety of unemployed individuals who have develop into “invisible”.

1A part of the beneficiaries of the fundamental RSA will not be accessible for a job, for well being causes, household causes, and so forth.

2www.data.gouv.fr/fr/datasets/demandeurs-demploi-beneficiaires-du-rsa (accessed August 2019).

3The Inequalities Observatory quotes the determine of 600,000 males who would have withdrawn from the labor market between the 1980s and 2017 (“ Unemployed: eight million folks in danger ”, on www.inegalites.fr, June 14, 2019). INSEE reveals that the participation price of the energetic inhabitants fell by zero.2% between 2018 and 2019, that’s to say that the energetic inhabitants withdraws from the official “labor market”, by discouragement (Insee Fast data, n ° 2019-208, August 14, 2019). The participation price of 15-29 12 months olds went from 56% in 2008 to 53.three% in 2015 (C. Minni, B. Galtier, “Employment and unemployment of 15-29 12 months olds in 2015. One in ten younger folks in unemployment ” Dares Outcomes No. 016, 2017). The working inhabitants of 25-49 12 months olds decreased by 96,000 folks per 12 months between 2013 and 2018 (C. De Miras, S. De Waroquier De Puel Parlan, C. Dixte, T. Do, C. Minni, S. Rebiere, M. Rey, “Employment, unemployment, energetic inhabitants in 2018: slowdown in employment because of non permanent work and fewer fall in unemployment”, op. cit.). Paradoxically, a rise in registrations at Pôle emploi could be a good signal if, by means of elevated confidence within the financial state of affairs, folks register to be helped of their search.

4The figures from Pôle emploi say nothing concerning the precarious working situations of a rising variety of workers. (Cf. for instance Dominique Lhuilier: “The world of labor makes” scraps “and doesn't care”, interview with C. André, Financial Options, September 24, 2019).

5“Ghost recordsdata of Pôle Emploi brokers”, “Secrets and techniques information” broadcast on France-Inter, by Jacques Monin, June 15, 2019.

6“Job seekers registered with Pôle emploi within the second quarter of 2019”, Dares indicators n ° 034, 2019.

7G. Father or mother, S. Rebière, “Folks in a pressured state of affairs on the labor market within the European Union: a complementary analysis which reveals the extent of the underutilized workforce”, Insee Reference, 2019.

8See the article G. Duval, “Financial Options launches its unemployment counter-indicator”, Financial alternate options, September four, 2017.

The issue is that job creation is lower than the rise within the energetic inhabitants.

Taken alone, the variety of job creations is deceptive for 2 causes. To start with, in the identical manner because the unemployment determine (false impression 86), it disregards the standard of employment: CDI, CDD, full-time, part-time … Then, the variety of jobs created in a single 12 months is said to the rise within the energetic inhabitants within the 12 months. We can not, for instance, congratulate ourselves on the creation of 100,000 jobs if the energetic inhabitants has elevated by 150,000: the energetic inhabitants fluctuates in response to demography and exercise behaviors, which differ in response to the participation price of girls. within the labor market, pension reforms, the hope or not of the long-term unemployed to discover a job.

As the next desk reveals, the 976,000 job creations between 2009 and 2018 didn’t cowl the variety of 1.37 million new individuals who joined the workforce, or a median of 140,000 per 12 months. As well as, these creations are very largely funded by the general public authorities, way more than 20 or 30 years in the past once we managed to create jobs with out decreasing the price of employment.

Evolution of the energetic inhabitants, job creations and the variety of unemployed (in hundreds) between 2009 and 2018

Supply: C. De Miras, S. De Waroquier De Puel Parlan, C. Dixte, T. Do, C. Minni, S. Rebiere, M. Rey, “Employment, unemployment, energetic inhabitants in 2018: slowdown in employment due to the non permanent work and fewer fall in unemployment ”, Dares Analyzes n ° 30, 2019.

Keep in mind, these job creations embody precarious work and part-time work and are due to this fact not all first rate jobs able to supporting the employee and his household. “At four^e Within the 2018 quarter, 18.2% of employed employees work part-time. For round a 3rd of those folks, part-time work is suffered: they wish to work extra and can be found to take action¹. “

The excellent news for 2019 is that there could be 1^st quarter roughly 100,000 new job creations … largely from the extra buying energy obtained on the finish of 2018 by the yellow vests motion, which resulted in a rise in public spending of 10 billion in early 2019 (false impression 100).

1 C. De Miras, S. De Waroquier De Puel Parlan, C. Dixte, T. Do, C. Minni, S. Rebiere, M. Rey, “Employment, unemployment, energetic inhabitants in 2018: slowdown in employment because of non permanent work and fewer fall in unemployment ”, op. cit.