After the well being disaster, INSEE analyzes that the pure deficit of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté continues to deteriorate and is among the many highest in metropolitan France.
The well being disaster would have generated four,400 extra deaths than anticipated between January 2020 and December 2021.
The regional inhabitants has been reducing since 2015. The pure deficit continues to deteriorate and is among the many highest in metropolitan France. It’s now not offset by the migratory steadiness, which has been zero for a number of years. In 2021, the variety of births continues to lower because of a pointy decline at the beginning of the yr. The mixed declines within the variety of ladies of childbearing age and the typical variety of kids per girl weigh closely on start tendencies.
As in 2020, the variety of deaths in 2021 is larger than in 2019. It stays excessive because of the getting older of the inhabitants. The well being disaster would have generated four,400 extra deaths than anticipated between January 2020 and December 2021. Within the area, solely the Doubs would proceed its inhabitants progress due to a surplus of births over deaths.
From March 2020, the successive waves of Covid-19 have speedy repercussions on the demographic evolution of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté. Nonetheless, the well being disaster has solely accentuated the downward development within the inhabitants. The arrival of huge generations because of ages of excessive mortality, the start deficit and nil internet migration trigger the regional inhabitants to lower.
A pure deficit among the many highest in France
As of January 1, 2022, the area’s inhabitants is estimated at 2,785,400 inhabitants, down since 2015. It’s dropping a median of 5,100 inhabitants per yr, i.e. -Zero.2% between 2015 and 2022. Bourgogne-Franche-Comté is the mainland area which is dropping essentially the most inhabitants. In mainland France, the variety of inhabitants continues to be growing, +Zero.three% on common per yr.
The regional inhabitants decline is principally because of a rising pure deficit. In 2021, 25,390 kids had been born and 31,600 residents died, i.e. a pure steadiness of -6,210. In Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, the pure progress fee in 2021 is -2.2 per thousand inhabitants. It’s +Zero.9‰ for mainland France and -Zero.5‰ for provincial France. The area is forward of Nouvelle-Aquitaine and Corse (-2.four‰) however far behind Île-de-France (+6.eight‰). This fee is constructive within the departments of huge city areas, in these to the east of Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes and in some round Paris. It’s reasonably adverse within the rural departments.
Fall in births 9 months after the primary confinement
At the beginning of 2021, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté as in mainland France, the variety of births fell 9 months after the confinement of March-April 2020. The context of the well being disaster and robust financial uncertainties might have discouraged couples from procreating throughout this era. and encourage them to postpone or cancel their parenting plans.
The concern of issues throughout being pregnant with Covid-19 and the closure of medically assisted procreation facilities through the first confinement may even have performed a job. From March and April 2021, the variety of births began to rise once more, benefiting from the well being and financial enchancment from the summer season of 2020. Nonetheless, and opposite to the nationwide development, this rebound didn’t final and didn’t enable to compensate for the sharp decline at the beginning of the yr.
In 2021, 270 fewer infants had been born in comparison with 2020 (-1.1%). This drop is much less marked than between 2019 and 2020 (-1.7%). In metropolitan France, the variety of births is rising barely once more in 2021 after ten years of decline: 1,570 extra births than in 2020, i.e. +Zero.2%. The lower in births primarily considerations the areas of north-eastern France but additionally Corsica. Conversely, the variety of births is especially dynamic within the west (Brittany and Pays de la Loire) and within the south (Occitanie and New Aquitaine).
Earlier and later pregnancies
The variety of births relies on the variety of ladies of childbearing age and their fertility. From 2011 to 2021, the feminine inhabitants aged 15 to 49 will lower by eight.Zero% within the area in comparison with -2.5% for metropolitan France. Girls are having kids later and later.
The causes are a number of: longer and extra frequent research, harder job searches, and so on. In 2021, 57.2% of youngsters born in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté have a mom aged not less than 30, in comparison with 50.6% in 2011 and 47.1% in 2001.
From 2011 to 2021, the typical variety of kids per girl fell from 1.97 to 1.75 within the area and from 2.00 to 1.80 for metropolitan France. The full fertility fee for girls aged 25 to 34, who’re essentially the most fertile, has fallen sharply lately, falling from 1.30 in 2011 to 1.17 in 2021. However, it’s steady for these over 35 years (Zero.36).
A smaller improve in deaths in 2021 than in 2020
In comparison with 2019, the variety of deaths elevated sharply in 2020 with the unprecedented well being disaster by + 11.5% (i.e. + three,470 deaths), then by four.7% in 2021 (i.e. + 1,410 deaths).
In metropolitan France, the epidemic was additionally much less marked in 2021 (+ 6.7%) than in 2020 (+ 9.three%). The results of the well being disaster had been disastrous for the areas of jap France in addition to Île-de-France in 2020, however the state of affairs was rebalanced in 2021.
The variety of deaths stays excessive because of the getting older of the inhabitants
Within the area, from 2011 to 2021, the variety of deaths is growing sharply: + 1.three% on common per yr towards + Zero.2% between 2001 and 2011. With an more and more giant aged inhabitants and the arrival of huge baby-boom generations at ages of excessive mortality, the variety of deaths is predicted to proceed to rise within the coming years.
In 2021, the share of individuals aged 65 or over among the many total inhabitants is 23.9% for the area in comparison with 20.9% in metropolitan France. The mortality fee reached 11.three per thousand inhabitants within the area towards 9.eight‰ for metropolitan France. In 2021, in Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, life expectancy at start is 79.2 years for males and 85.2 years for girls. After a pointy drop in 2020 because of the pandemic, these life expectations are again to their 2019 degree. They’re barely decrease within the area than in mainland France. With the development in medical monitoring of the foremost causes of loss of life, cardiovascular ailments and cancers specifically, life expectancy has elevated in twenty years by three.9 years for males and a couple of.four years for girls within the area.
The Doubs would profit from extra births than deaths
In 2021, Doubs can be the one division within the area the place the variety of births is larger than the variety of deaths. Nonetheless, the hole has narrowed over the previous ten years. Its propensity to draw younger populations (18 to 30 years outdated) in reference to the proximity of Switzerland, makes it a very dynamic division within the north-east of France. The proportion of ladies of childbearing age within the inhabitants is excessive, whereas the variety of kids per girl is throughout the regional common (1.73).
On January 1, 2022, Doubs, which continues to be gaining considerably in inhabitants, would grow to be essentially the most populated division within the area, thus overtaking Saône-et-Loire. The inhabitants of Côte-d’Or can be steady and the opposite departments would lose inhabitants and extra significantly the Territoire de Belfort (-Zero.9% annual common for 3 years), Nièvre (-Zero.eight%), and the Yonne (-Zero.6%).
For ten years, births have been on a downward development in all departments of the area. Nonetheless, in 2021, they’re bouncing again in Nièvre, Saône-et-Loire and, to a lesser extent, in Haute-Saône. In Nièvre, the getting older of the inhabitants results in a continuation of the upward development within the variety of deaths in 2021 (+ 2.2%). On this division, the mortality fee is the very best, 16.2 deaths per thousand inhabitants. Conversely, it’s decrease in Doubs, Côte-d’Or and Territoire de Belfort. These three departments are the one ones the place there are extra folks underneath 20 than folks aged 65 or over.
Fabrice Loones, Philippe Rossignol (INSEE)
Field 1 – four,400 extra deaths than anticipated from January 2020 to December 2021 because of the well being disaster
To measure the results of the well being disaster on deaths, we are able to assume that within the absence of an epidemic, mortality would have developed following the development of the current interval: improve in deaths with the arrival of huge generations because of ages of excessive mortality, hampered nevertheless by the achieve in life expectancy obtained due to the development of residing circumstances and medical progress.
Beneath this assumption, in 2020 and 2021, respectively 30,400 and 30,500 inhabitants of Bourgogne-Franche-Comté would have died. Compared with the 33,700 deaths noticed in 2020 and 31,600 in 2021, the surplus mortality attributed to the well being disaster might be three,300 in 2020 and 1,100 in 2021, i.e. a complete of four,400 over the 2 years. [Cette mesure de l’impact de la crise est une déclinaison pour la région de la méthode présentée par Nathalie Blanpain sur le blog de l’Insee en juillet 2021.]
This estimate is decrease than the variety of deaths immediately attributed to the Covid-19 epidemic by the well being providers: almost 5,300 deaths in well being institutions in addition to 2,300 deaths in medico-social institutions in accordance with Public Well being France ( SpF). Deaths attributed to Covid-19 embrace these of frail individuals who would have been linked to a different trigger within the absence of an epidemic. As well as, folks carrying Covid-19 have died with out it being potential to find out the true trigger. Lastly, the difficulties in getting round and the concern of going out might have prevented remedy or the identification of different pathologies. Conversely, deaths have been prevented specifically due to confinements (much less journey and accidents), protecting measures and the discount of contact.
Field 2 – Declining working-age inhabitants
The decline within the variety of folks of working age is a nationwide phenomenon. Within the area, the variety of folks aged 15 to 64 has been declining since 2011, whereas the variety of folks aged 65 or over is growing. The drop within the working-age inhabitants may be defined, on the one hand, by the arrival of the primary generations of baby-boomers at retirement age. However, there are fewer and fewer younger adults, in reference to behavioral adjustments: the decline within the age of childbearing, the digital disappearance of huge households, the event of ladies’s work, and so on. Entry to larger schooling additionally delays entry into the labor market.
The hole between the areas within the north of France (Grand Est, Hauts-de-France, Normandy and Centre-Val de Loire) and people within the west, south and Île-de-France may be defined by the attractiveness of those areas to college students and younger employees. In Nièvre, the decline is far higher than within the different departments of the area, whereas in Côte-d’Or, it’s weaker. Within the Doubs, the inhabitants of working age has been stabilizing for the previous 5 years. The asymmetrical evolution of the variety of working folks and retirees could make the adjustment of the labor drive problematic within the scarcity occupations of well being and private providers.